Obama Is Blowing It In the Middle East

Iran’s ambassador to Moscow, Reza Sajjadi, promised swift and hefty military retaliation to any U.S. military moves against his country. The ambassador said February 9,  that any U.S. aggression will be met with Iranian military strikes on U.S. targets throughout the world, to which Sajjadi claims the Iranians have “full access,” according to IRNA the country’s state-run media. Sajjadi said that Iran is capable enough to “teach the U.S. an unforgettable lesson,” but that Iran has no plan for pre-emptive strikes on U.S. targets.

Iran May Retaliate Because of International Sanctions

The Obama administration’s indecisiveness concerning Syria and Iran has damaged the image and prestige of the United States in the Middle East to a point where we may be forced to launch a military strike against Iran or be forced to vacate the Persian Gulf.

Iran is striking back at countries that have imposed sanctions with military and economic threats, and may soon be willing to launch attacks on its enemies in the West. European countries are likely to be the first targets of economic reprisals given the announcement by Tehran that it may immediately cut off oil exports to Europe ahead of the EU embargo taking effect. Several large multinational corporations, including British/Dutch oil company Royal Dutch Shell (London: RDSA) as well as Japanese and South Korean companies such as Mazda, Kia, and Samsung do significant business in Iran and could be expelled because of support for sanctions by their home countries. In this analysis, LIGNET looks at the range of retaliatory responses Iran may be considering this year due to its growing isolation.

Last week, the seriousness of Iranian defiance of international pressure over its nuclear weapons program was brought into sharper focus. An Iranian parliament member said his country may respond to the EU oil embargo – scheduled to be gradually implemented over the next five months – by banning oil sales to Europe for five to 15 years. Iran reportedly will cut off of sales of oil to Europe next week. Last Tuesday, the U.S. intelligence community warned in its annual worldwide threat report to Congress that Iranian leaders are now willing to launch attacks inside the United States, basing this assessment on the uncovered Iranian plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to the United States in a restaurant in Georgetown, in Washington, D.C.

• Bombastic threats. Iran will likely continue to respond to increased tensions with bombastic threats against its adversaries, especially the United States and Israel that it does not intend to act on. These include threats to close the Strait of Hormuz and threats against U.S. naval vessels. It is unclear whether recent threats of this type were authorized by senior Iranian officials or were made unilaterally by Iranian military officials. If the latter is true, it could represent a breakdown in central control in Iran that could lead to additional threats and military incidents that could spin out of control and lead to a confrontation. Iran will also continue to try to verbally bully Saudi Arabia and other Gulf oil states to cease their cooperation with the United States and to stop violating their OPEC oil production quotas.
• Economic retaliation. Iran has already indicated its intention to punish companies and states that cooperate with American European sanctions. Iran’s apparent decision to respond to the EU oil embargo by ending oil sales to Europe was made knowing that abruptly cutting off oil to Italy and Greece would hurt their already weak economies and create new headaches for the EU. Royal Dutch Shell is still buying about 100,000 barrels of oil a day from Iran, sales that Iran will probably soon stop if Europe does not stop them first. Japanese and South Korean companies such as Mazda, Kia, and Samsung are also at risk of being expelled by Tehran due to their home country’s support of the EU oil embargo. Iran may seek to replace these companies with firms from Russia and China who have steadfastly opposed international sanctions.
• Terrorism, assassinations, and attacks on U.S. soil. U.S. intelligence agencies believe Iranian officials are now willing to launch attacks on U.S. soil similar to the plot revealed last September to kill the Saudi ambassador to the United States. Such attacks would probably use terrorist proxies, especially Hezbollah. The Obama administration sanctioned six Iranians for working with al Qaeda and accused Iran of having a secret deal to support al Qaeda terrorism. This activity is likely to expand this year and target vulnerable Western and allied targets. U.S. troops in Afghanistan and Saudi officials could be major targets for new Iranian-backed terrorism conducted by its surrogates this year.
• More Iranian naval exercises. Iranian officials have stated that they will conduct more naval exercises that seem intended to demonstrate Iran’s capabilities to close the Strait of Hormuz and harass U.S. Navy forces.
• Accelerate nuclear weapons program. Intelligence experts believe Iran is likely to accelerate its nuclear weapons program both to express its defiance of international sanctions and out of fear that a possible Israeli airstrike could set this program back several years. Acceleration of the nuclear program would probably include increased uranium enrichment, additional weaponization research, and racing to complete its heavy water reactor, a future source of plutonium.
• Meddle in other Arab states. Iran will continue its support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and continue to interfere in other Arab states – especially Iraq and Bahrain – to promote its interests and to undermine states friendly to the West.
• Pretend interest in nuclear negotiations. While not a retaliatory measure, Iran is likely to continue its practice of calling for talks on its nuclear program and then drawing them out to buy more time to continue its nuclear weapons research.
• Missile tests. Iran periadically conducts ballistic missile tests within its borders and has conducted two launches to place rudimentary satellites into space. Iran is likely to conduct more missile tests within its borders this year to demonstrate the increasing capabilities of its missile arsenal which can probably reach at far as southeastern Europe. Iran’s space launches are believed by many experts to actually be tests of ICBM technology to develop missiles that could hit all of Europe and eventually the U.S. homeland. Iran conducted space launches in 2011 and 2011. It probably will conduct another in 2012 to intimidate the West and in hopes of generating national pride to distract from the dismal economy.

Experts also believe – not the Obama administration, of course – that Iran may conduct long-range missile tests outside its borders or even raid a European embassy in Tehran. The November raid by supposed Iranian students on the British embassy in Tehran demonstrated at least part of the Iranian leadership’s growing hostility toward U.S. allies and sponsors of trade sanctions.

They may also begin producing nuclear weapons fuel. Iran’s decision last month to start enriching uranium at its Fordow facility – which is fortified and built into a mountainside to resist airstrikes – set the stage for possible nuclear weapons fuel production.  Begin researching more advanced nuclear weapon designs.  And possibly use terrorist proxies to employ chemical or biological weapons. Although Iran is believed to have chemical and biological weapons, it has never indicated a willingness to use such weapons or share them with its terrorist proxies. While Iran’s willingness to conduct an assassination in Washington, D.C. by detonating a bomb in a restaurant reflects a new willingness to take new, more extreme measures against its adversaries, it probably does not want to risk global condemnation of being behind a BW or CW attack.

Conclusion

Iran has not been as isolated as it is today since the 1979 Iranian revolution, raising the possibility it that could engage in unexpected moves, possibly one that could spark a military incident. Iran is likely to avoid taking overt actions that could provoke an Israeli airstrike. However, it may engage in such actions covertly, such as producing nuclear weapons fuel. Economic retaliation is a likely course of action against Iran, possibly against Japanese and German auto companies.

The West in is this trouble largely because the Obama administration is loaded with a bunch of amateurs who were eager to attack the leadership of Libya and Egypt – nations that posed no real threat to us – and to severely criticize Israel while all but ignoring our two biggest enemies in the Middle East: Iran and Syria.